In December 2019 the world was shocked by a new virus that attacks the respiratory tract and pneumonia that broke out in Wuhan City, China. This incident shocked the whole world because there have been 68,500 cases in China until February 2020. In early January 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) identified the virus as Novel Coronavirus or 2019-nCoV then in February 2020 the official name of the virus was announced as COVID-19. This virus spreads very quickly through direct contact with infected people. And it turns out that this incident did not only occur in China but also almost all over the world where there are more than 118 thousand cases of corona virus infection in more than 110 countries, including Indonesia. Therefore WHO announced this incident as a global pandemic.

COVID-19 was first announced in Indonesia on March 3, 2020. As of March 27, 2020 there have been 1,046 cases in Indonesia and it is known that the highest incidence occurred in DKI Jakarta. As a form of academic contribution to solve this problem, the School of Environmental Sciences, University of Indonesia (SIL UI) together with the Indonesian Environmental Experts Association (IESA) held an online seminar with the title “Covid-19, When will it subside? Covid-19 Pandemic Model in DKI Jakarta, Phenomenon Simulation and Intervention of Parties with Systems Thinking”. The seminar was attended by 100 participants from various government and private institutions, academics, researchers and practitioners in the fields of health and environment, and students.

In this seminar, the speaker Dr. dr. Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo, M.Si (red- Deputy Director of SIL UI, Chairperson of IESA, and Founder of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics PPSML SIL UI) created a model that shows the phenomenon of the Covid19 pandemic based on events in DKI Jakarta using the system dynamics method. The model was created to see the behavioral trends of the Covid-19 pandemic and its interventions.

Based on the simulation results for 240 days starting in February 2020, it appears that the number of people positive for Covid19 increases slowly and then enters a phase of rapid growth and at its peak the number of people tested positive for Covid19 will be constant on day 213. Constant condition is a saturated condition (steady state) because almost all people are susceptible to contracting even though some show clinical symptoms (symptomatic) or do not show clinical symptoms (asymptomatic).

Interventions can be carried out by reducing contact activities to minimize the transmission of the Covid19 virus from one person to another or even completely eliminated. The decrease in contact activities can be partial or total, but from the simulation results both show that the number of positive people Covid19 will decrease significantly. On the other hand, intervention by reducing contact activities, for example with a lockdown policy, will cause economic losses.

In this seminar, the conclusions that can be drawn based only on the results of the model simulation (without considering other things) are 1) Without intervention, the Covid19 pandemic in DKI Jakarta will take place with a sigmoid behavior pattern (S-curve) and is predicted to reach steady state after 7 months from February 2020 with the number of positive Covid19 cases reaching more than 150,000 cases. 2) Policy interventions to reduce contact activities can reduce positive cases of Covid19 with very good results.

Therefore, through this seminar, the resource person and Director of the School of Environmental Sciences, Dr. Emil Budianto, invited all parties to work together to reduce this pandemic by disciplining themselves, maintaining cleanliness, and following the government’s recommendations for social distancing.

(red: Wezia Berkademi, M.Si)

• IESA WEBTALK material: Click>> IESA WEBTALK Covid-19 DKI <<Click
• IESA WEBTALK Recording

Part 1:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc_S3K6YQm8

Part 2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX41w8HGp0M

Part 3:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRLPYTYgYL0